2020/21 Forecast Overview World coffee production for 2020/21 is forecast 7.0 million bags (60 kilograms) higher than the previous year to 175.5 million. Brazil is forecast to account for most of the gain as its Arabica crop enters the on‐year of the biennial production cycle and Robusta reaches record output.
World exports are forecast higher on strong gains in Brazil, Honduras, and Colombia. Global ending stocks are expected to jump to a 6‐year high as production outpaces consumption.
Coffee prices, as measured by the International Coffee Organization (ICO) monthly composite price index, averaged $1.10 per pound in November 2020, down from the recent high of $1.16 in September 2020.
World production is raised 1.6 million bags from the June 2020 estimate to 168.5 million.
Brazil is up 1.2 million bags to 60.5 million, largely due to updated data for Arabica output.
Colombia is 300,000 bags higher to 14.1 million on higher yields.
World bean exports are up 2.4 million bags to 114.4 million.
Brazil is raised 3.5 million bags to 36.2 million on updated trade data.
Honduras is down 600,000 bags to 4.9 million on reduced exportable supplies.
Vietnam is lowered 400,000 bags to 23.6 million as farmers added to stocks.
World bean imports are lowered 1.0 million bags to 108.7 million.
The United States is down 1.1 million bags to 23.9 million on lower consumption