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The imbalance between supply and demand has led to record prices…
Beef prices are reaching record levels in global markets. What’s putting pressure on prices? Which countries will be most affected?
Why are beef prices rising?
Beef prices are rising due to an imbalance between demand and supply.
Supply is particularly constrained by declining livestock numbers in the US. A market reporter for market research firm Expana stated that persistent drought and processing plant closures, along with changing consumer preferences, have significantly reduced livestock numbers.
Cattle slaughter in the US is expected to be 6.5 percent lower by mid-2025 compared to the same period in 2024. Ralitsa Videnova, Market Research Analyst at commodity consultancy Vesper, explained that due to low livestock numbers, the industry is focusing on restoring these numbers, leaving fewer cattle available for slaughter.
Expana: He noted that EU animal welfare regulations, the cattle-killing New World Screwworm outbreak in Mexico, low calving rates in the UK and global tariff pressures are also impacting production.
In response to this situation, there is a spike in consumer demand. “Strong consumer demand is pushing up beef cattle prices,” said Vesper’s Videnova. “How will supply respond? Until then, limited production levels will continue to support high global beef prices.”
How are other countries affected?
This shortage has created an opportunity for exporters in other parts of the world. Australia, New Zealand and Brazil stepped in to meet the demand. Brazil particularly benefited from this opportunity, achieving a 52 percent year-on-year rise in beef export turnover in June. This rise was driven by a 25 percent hike in export volumes and a 22 percent hike in free-on-board (FOB) prices.
According to Expana, Australian beef has largely replaced American beef in China, partly due to trade tensions with the US. Australian beef is also increasingly entering other East Asian markets, such as Korea and Japan. Meanwhile, importing countries and regions like China and the EU will also be hit hard by these increases. According to Vesper’s Videnova, China has reduced its imports by 10 percent since last year. Due to intense competition, it has also been forced to enhance prices to avoid shortages.
How will producers be affected?
Experts say the outlook is negative. It will be difficult for meat producers to break free from a market where costs are rising rapidly. Small businesses will be the most affected.
Experts note that large companies typically have more leeway to switch suppliers or buy in bulk to hedge against short-term price hikes, while smaller businesses face a more challenging time adapting their sourcing strategies due to limited flexibility and financing. The impact of the cost-of-living crisis is putting pressure on meat companies in many markets as consumers are hesitant to spend large sums on meat…
