THE GLOBAL WINDOW OF TURKISH FOOD AND AGRICULTURE The Global Window of Turkish Food and Agriculture Sector
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Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations (FAO) released a new Cereal Supply and Demand Brief on Friday, with new insights on crop prospects in 2025/26.
FAO’s latest forecast foresees global cereal production in 2025 to reach an all-time high of 2 925 million tonnes, up 0.5 percent from last month and 2.3 percent above the 2024 level. The upward revision is driven by improved outlooks for wheat, maize and rice. However, forecasts for hot and dry weather in parts of key producing regions may impact yield potential, particularly for maize.
Wheat output is now forecast at 805.3 million tonnes, boosted by higher-than-expected yields in India and Pakistan. Global maize production is also forecast to increase, driven by favourable conditions in Brazil and a larger-than-anticipated planted area in India, offsetting reductions in Ukraine and the EU due to dry weather and reduced planted areas. Global rice production in 2025/26 is anticipated to reach a record level of 555.6 million tonnes (milled basis), buoyed by improved prospects in India, Bangladesh, Pakistan and Viet Nam, and despite expected declines in Iraq and the US.
Global cereal utilization in 2025/26 is forecast at 2 900 million tonnes, up 0.8 percent from 2024/25. Utilization of coarse grains has been revised upward, while the forecasts for wheat use has been slightly lowered. Rice consumption is expected to increase further, spurred by rising food demand and sustained ethanol production in India.
World cereal stocks at the end of the 2025/26 season are forecast to reach 889.1 million tonnes, representing a 2.2 rise from their opening levels. The global cereal stocks-to-use ratio is now expected to rise to 30.3 percent, suggesting a relatively comfortable supply outlook.
Global trade in cereals in 2025/26 is predicted to reach 486.9 million tonnes, up 1.2 percent from 2024/25. Exports of both wheat and rice are forecast to increase, with rice trade reaching an all-time high of 60.8 million tonnes. Maize trade is forecast to decline slightly, while trade in barley and sorghum will likely rise.
The Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS), hosted by FAO, also published its monthly Market Monitor on Friday. In addition to the regular market analysis, the new edition features an article on strategic grain reserves (SGRs) and food security, outlining guiding principles to keep SGRs small, simple and smart.
