THE GLOBAL WINDOW OF TURKISH FOOD AND AGRICULTURE The Global Window of Turkish Food and Agriculture Sector
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June 2026…
The biggest lesson from recent food security shocks may not be fragility. It may be resilience.
During the “Food Security in the Age of Crisis” session, I had the privilege of asking Dr. Joe Glauber, Emeritus Research Fellow at International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) and former Chief Economist of the U.S. Department of Agriculture, about the lessons from recent global shocks and the impact of weaker farmer margins on future production. His answers offered a very important perspective on global food security.
Global food and grain supply chains have faced Covid-19, the war in Ukraine, trade tensions, energy shocks and the recent Strait of Hormuz risk. But they have held up better than many expected.
One of his most important observations was this: Availability has generally been less of a problem than affordability. Large importing countries have mostly been able to secure supplies, even during major disruptions. The bigger challenge has often been the price paid for those supplies and the impact on vulnerable consumers.
Glauber also made an important distinction between crop prices and food prices. Consumers do not buy raw commodities. They buy processed food. And much of the final food cost comes after the commodity leaves the farm: processing, energy, transportation, packaging and distribution. So even when grain prices are relatively calm, high energy and logistics costs can still keep food inflation under pressure.
Another key point was the difference between today’s market and 2022. In 2022, energy, fertilizer and agricultural commodity prices all surged together after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Today, the situation is different. Recent geopolitical tensions have mainly affected energy and fertilizer markets, while many agricultural commodity prices remain close to pre-crisis levels. Volatility is also much lower than in 2022, with agricultural futures volatility now below 10-year averages in many cases.
In response to my question on farmer margins, Glauber underlined another important risk. In 2022, high input costs were partly offset by high grain prices. But since the second half of 2022, crop prices have fallen faster than many input costs. That margin squeeze could influence planting decisions, fertilizer use and crop choices in the next season.
He also highlighted several issues to watch closely:
• Fertilizer and energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz
• Farmer margins after two to three years of pressure
• China’s demand for soybeans, maize and feed grains
• U.S. Plains dryness and hard red winter wheat conditions
• July weather for the U.S. maize crop
• Heat and dryness in Western Europe
• A possible stronger El Niño later in the year
By Namık Kemal Parlak,
Editor-in-Chief,
The Miller Magazine
