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Agricultural land in Antalya, southern Türkiye, is undergoing an annual land subsidence of about 2 centimeters (0.79 inches), a development that experts warn may increase the region’s vulnerability to earthquakes and climate-related hazards, a recent scientific study led by associate professor Nusret Demir from Akdeniz University revealed.
Using active remote sensing technologies and radar data, researchers examined soil movement across the region between 2020 and 2023. Their findings indicate that soft-soiled agricultural areas in the northern parts of the city are experiencing the most significant subsidence. The study attributes this ongoing land sinking to excessive groundwater usage and the effects of climate change, including increased temperatures and prolonged dry seasons.
“The alarm for Antalya is ringing here, not just for earthquakes but for land deformation,” said Demir, a faculty member of Akdeniz University’s Department of Space Sciences and Technologies. “Our earthquake-related analyses point to this growing issue as well. The changing climate and continued use of underground water resources are compounding the risks.”
Demir also noted that areas affected by wildfires have experienced height loss due to decreased biomass, which further exacerbates environmental degradation. Referring to data from the European Space Agency, he highlighted that since 2020, southern Türkiye has been exposed to record-high temperatures, which have led to worsening drought and water scarcity in the region.
While the study addresses earthquake risks, Demir emphasized that the focus should shift from fault lines to vulnerabilities caused by soft ground structures and poorly constructed buildings. “We must now talk about the structures that make earthquakes dangerous, not just the earthquakes themselves,” he added.
Describing the earthquake threat as navigating a ship through a stormy sea, Demir said: “If we want to survive that sea, we need buildings, our ships, that can withstand the waves. Japan has been doing this for years. It’s a well-known example, but it speaks to the truth.”
He emphasized the importance of detailed structural assessments of buildings across Antalya. While noting that not all older buildings are inherently unsafe, he urged the strict enforcement of modern construction codes for all new developments, particularly in areas with soft soil.
The research team also collaborates with Istanbul Technical University on a project supported by the Scientific and Technological Research Council of Türkiye (TÜBİTAK) studying land movement in Istanbul’s Kartal district. Remote sensing data has already detected a horizontal shift of 2 centimeters in the Marmara region from the Tekirdağ area toward the southeast. These findings align with GNSS-based observations made by scientists from the National Technical University of Athens.
Demir also shared the analysis of geophysics engineer Volkan Sevilgen, who works with a U.S.-based seismic risk consultancy. According to Sevilgen, the Marmara Fault line shifts at a rate of 2.5 centimeters per year. Although Istanbul lies approximately 15 kilometers (9.32 miles) from the fault, decades of unregulated urban growth have left the city highly vulnerable.
“The April 23, 2025, earthquake may not have caused widespread damage, but it confirmed that seismic activity continues in the region. We must urgently strengthen our building stock and invest in early warning systems,” Demir concluded…
