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2024/25 forecasts for global rice production and trade raised…

Press release…

United Nations Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) raised its global cereal production forecast for 2024 slightly to 2 billion 853 million tonnes, as upward revisions to rice and wheat production outweighed a slight decline in global coarse grain production. The new figure, which is also included in the new Grain Supply and Demand Summary published on Friday, is slightly below the record production in 2023.

World wheat production is expected to increase by 0.5 per cent in 2024 compared to the previous year, with improved yield prospects in Australia more than offsetting a significant reduction in the European Union’s forecast due to excessive rainfall. In contrast, global coarse grain production is expected to decline by 0.8 per cent from 2023, with smaller crops in the European Union outweighing expected higher maize production in the United States. World rice production is forecast to increase by 0.9 per cent in 2024/25, reaching an all-time high of 539.2 million tonnes.

Global cereal use is forecast to increase by 0.4 per cent to 2 billion 853 million tonnes in 2024/25, while global cereal stocks are projected to increase by 1.2 per cent and rice stocks are projected to increase at a rate three times faster. This leads to a picture that FAO considers as ‘the expectation of adequate supply in the new season’, with the utilisation rate of global cereal stocks at 30.6 percent.

International cereal trade is estimated to be 488.1 million tonnes, a contraction of 2.7 percent compared to 2023/24. However, increased imports from Africa and the Near East could lead to a revival in international rice trade in 2025…

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