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September, 2026…
Black Sea disruptions push wheat futures up around 30% year-on-year, pressuring international markets…
WARSAW…
Global food prices rose in August to their highest level since late 2022 as disruptions linked to the Russia-Ukraine war put renewed pressure on grain markets and Black Sea exports, according to UN data and the Polish Economic Institute (PIE).
The UN Food and Agriculture Organization’s Food Price Index rose to 133.3 points in August from 130.8 in July, with prices increasing across all five major food categories. The index remains around 17% below its March 2022 peak following Russia’s full-scale war on Ukraine.
PIE said attacks on port infrastructure and shipping in July and August had halted much of the grain trade from Russia and Ukraine, which together account for around one-third of global wheat exports.
Russian strikes on Ukrainian ports in Odesa and along the Danube reduced Ukrainian wheat exports to 1.6 million metric tons between Aug. 1 and 28, around 60% below the level a year earlier and only about 20% of the country’s potential export capacity, PIE said, citing Ukrainian authorities.
Ukrainian drone strikes on Russia’s Novorossiysk port, meanwhile, contributed to a 56% year-on-year fall in Russian wheat exports, according to estimates by agricultural consultancy SovEcon cited by the institute. Russian wheat shipments totaled 1.6 million metric tons in the first month of the season, their lowest level for the period since 2017/18.
The disruption is already feeding into international markets. Wheat futures rose around 30% year-on-year in August to their highest level in more than three years, PIE said. Asian importers have also begun shifting purchases toward Australian and Argentine wheat as deliveries from Russia and Ukraine become less reliable.
Ukraine is seeking alternative routes for its agricultural exports and has called for increased transit through Poland and other neighboring EU states, as well as the lifting of Poland’s embargo on imports of Ukrainian wheat, maize, rapeseed and sunflower seed.
PIE said, however, that land routes cannot replace the volumes previously handled through Black Sea ports. Low water levels on the Danube and attacks on infrastructure near Moldova are also limiting alternative Ukrainian export routes.
Russia is attempting to redirect some grain exports toward Baltic ports after disruption at Novorossiysk, which normally handles around one-third of Russian grain exports, but alternative routes involve higher costs and longer delivery times.
For Ukraine, agricultural products account for around 60% of total exports, meaning prolonged disruption could put additional pressure on export earnings, storage capacity and economic growth, PIE said.
The institute warned that continued attacks on Black Sea infrastructure were increasing the economic cost of the war for both Russia and Ukraine while passing that pressure increasingly quickly to global food markets.
By Jo Harper,
Source: www.aa.com.tr
