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September, 2026…
THE BALANCE IS SHIFTING IN THE HAZELNUT MARKET…
WILL FERRERO’S NUMBERS ADD UP?
Activity in Türkiye’s hazelnut market is intensifying as competition between Ferrero, the Turkish Grain Board (TMO) and the open market grows…
According to unconfirmed market reports, Ferrero entered into substantial contracts for hazelnut kernels at approximately TRY 425/kg. These contracts are estimated at around 20,000 tonnes of kernels—equivalent, depending on yield, to roughly 40,000 tonnes of in-shell hazelnuts.
At a 50% kernel yield, TRY 425/kg corresponds to a gross in-shell value of TRY 212.50/kg. After cracking, labour, processing losses, financing and other costs, the purchasing equivalent could fall to around TRY 195–200/kg.
However, high-quality Çakıldak hazelnuts are already trading at approximately TRY 200–205/kg. This suggests that the cost calculations of companies committed to these contracts may already be under pressure.
Quality is becoming the decisive factor…
The 2026 crop has been affected by brown marmorated stink bug damage, higher empty-nut rates, lower kernel yields and broader quality problems. As quality declines in coastal areas, buyers are increasingly turning to high-altitude Çakıldak hazelnuts with stronger yields.
Companies reportedly required to deliver kernels by 17 October may struggle to secure sufficient volumes of the necessary quality.
Making a sale on paper is easy. The real challenge is putting the contracted quantity and quality into the warehouse on time.
TMO is rapidly absorbing supply…
Around 50,000 tonnes have reportedly entered TMO warehouses, while appointments have reached 205,000 tonnes. If these appointments become actual deliveries, TMO could achieve record purchases this season.
This would further reduce the availability of high-quality hazelnuts in the open market. Ferrero’s suppliers may therefore have only two options: raise purchasing prices or risk failing to meet delivery commitments.
Ferrero must also purchase at least 45,000 tonnes of in-shell hazelnuts between September and 30 December 2026 under its commitments to the Turkish Competition Authority. The temporary reduction to 30,000 tonnes applied only to 2025.
Meanwhile, TMO’s 2026 prices, based on a 50% sound-kernel yield, are:
• TRY 255/kg for Giresun quality
• TRY 250/kg for Levant quality
With TMO purchases increasing, quality supply declining and private-sector delivery obligations approaching, the open market could gradually move closer to TMO prices.
Producers should make their own decisions according to their debts, financial needs, product quality and market conditions. However, current indicators suggest that high-quality hazelnuts will become even more valuable.
This season, owning hazelnuts creates strength—but being able to source high-quality hazelnuts may create even greater strength.
Ferrero’s real test is not announcing a price. It is securing the required product, at that price, in the right quality and on time…
By Osman Çakmak,
Hazelnut Broker, Ordu
