THE GLOBAL WINDOW OF TURKISH FOOD AND AGRICULTURE The Global Window of Turkish Food and Agriculture Sector
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Press release…
Don’t be fooled by a wet winter: the fire risk could rise before summer arrives
Contrary to expectations, a wet winter does not always mean a milder fire season. Grasses and shrubs that grow rapidly in the rain can turn into fuel that ignites easily in hot and dry summer conditions. Moreover, as we approach the summer of 2026, the possibility of an El Niño is being monitored as an additional risk factor that could increase the likelihood of heatwaves and drought. Therefore, it is not enough to limit firefighting efforts solely to the number of aircraft, helicopters and ground vehicles; risk mitigation, fuel load management and local preparations must be completed before summer begins.
As the summer of 2026 approaches, the fact that the winter months were rainy may create a misleading sense of relief among the public. However, the risk of wildfires is not solely determined by how much rain falls, but by how much flammable material accumulates in the landscape following these rains and how quickly this material dries out during the summer months. Grasses that grow rapidly during the wet season can quickly turn into fine fuel that ignites easily under high temperatures, low humidity and drying winds.
A factor making this situation even more critical this year is the likelihood of an El Niño event. According to the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) May 2026 assessment, there is an 82 per cent probability of El Niño conditions developing by July. Although its impact on Türkiye may not be direct, El Niño acts as a significant ‘risk multiplier’ for the Mediterranean Basin due to its potential to intensify heatwaves and increase the risk of drought. If the drying grass cover combines with human-caused fires, this could lead to wildfires spreading more rapidly, particularly in the Aegean and Mediterranean regions.
By Associate Professor Dr. Okan Ürker,
Ecologist specialising in fire ecology and integrated fire management…
