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Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Bulletin #1, 10 February 2023…

International prices of wheat fell again in January, as the short-term outlook for global supplies continued to improve, in particular following latest estimates of larger 2022 outputs in Australia and the Russian Federation than earlier expected.

By contrast, international coarse grain prices firmed marginally, mostly reflecting the continued strong demand for maize supplies from Brazil. For rice, tighter availabilities, strong local demand in some Asian exporting countries and exchange rate movements increased international prices at an accelerated pace in January.

FAO’s analysis of domestic staple food prices indicates that significantly high price levels persisted in December 2022 and January 2023, despite some evidence of easing from 2022 peaks for selected countries, including parts of Southern Africa and West Africa. Food access constraints will likely continue in the near term, amid fragile social and economic conditions in several areas, especially in the Horn of Africa.

Developments in the global market, along with other concurrent shocks, including adverse weather events, conflicts and macroeconomic challenges such as currency weaknesses, will continue to influence domestic staple food price trends.

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