With studies showing the importance of increasing demand over the next 10 years for agricultural countries, Turkey needs to plan wisely to stay ahead…

In terms of the dynamics of world agriculture and the global food industry, the “Agriculture Outlook in 2021-2030” report by the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the U.N.’s Agriculture and Food Organization (FAO) predicts global demand for agricultural commodities and food will slow by 2030, compared to that seen in the decade spanning 2010-2020.

While the increase in demand for agricultural commodities was 2.2% in the 2010-2020 period, it will continue to increase by 1.2% in the 2020-2030 period with a 1 point slowdown. That is, demand will not decline, but its growth rate will slow down.

The expectation is that demand for agricultural products in China, which increased by 2.7% during the 2010-2020 period, will slow down to 0.8% for the next 10-year period by 2030.

Dr. Kerem Alkin

Meanwhile, demand for agricultural commodities to produce biofuels will contract by 0.4%. On a product basis, while the demand for vegetable oils increased by 4% on average in the 2010-2020 period, the increase in demand for the same product is expected to slow down to 1.5% for the 2020-2030 period.

In the report, global demand for dairy, which increased by 2% between 2010 and 2020, is expected to increase by 1.8% in the 2020-2030 period with a very limited slowdown. Demand for cereals, on the other hand, is expected to increase by only 1% instead of 2%, slowing down by half compared to the previous 10 years.

Increasing numbers

While sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, Near East Asia and North Africa stand out as the regions with the highest demand growth due to population growth, linked to this expectation, population growth will account for nearly all of the growth in global sugar demand.

On the other hand, the biggest reason for the increase in global vegetable oil demand will be the increase in variety in per capita use. The report predicts an increase of 1.2% in grain production for nutritional use by 2030 and a 1.2% increase in demand for meat, milk, eggs and fish due to the expected demand spike in underdeveloped and middle-income countries. With the forecast that the world population, which reached 7.8 billion between 2018 and 2020, will reach 8.5 billion in 2030, the projection of a 1.3% increase in global food demand stands out.

While sub-Saharan Africa, the Near East and North Africa alone represent 35% of the global sugar demand increase of the next 10 years, following the prediction that the average purchasing power will increase by 5.8% in China, China will alone account for 43% of the global demand increase in fish products and 33% of the global demand increase in meat products. India alone, on the other hand, is expected to be responsible for 50% of the increase in the demand for dairy products and vegetable oils by 2030.

When the real values of the 2018-2020 period are compared with the projections for the 2030 period, it is expected that the use of corn will increase from 1.15 billion tons to 1.35 billion tons, the use of rice from 500 million tons to 600 million tons, the use of wheat from 780 million tons to 820 million tons, and the use of meat from 350 million tons to 400 million tons.

Sufficient food

By 2030, it is foreseen that the means for providing sufficient food on a global scale will increase by 4% and the daily calorie consumption per capita will reach 3,025 kcal. Fatty and fibrous foods are expected to account for 60% of these calories.

While a noticeable change is not expected in the rate of food supplies in rich economies, food is expected to increase by 4.5% in high-middle-income countries. In China, 32% of the calorie increase is expected to come from animal products and 19% from fatty products. In low-middle-income economies, where people can reach 202 kcal of food per capita per day, based on the fact that the level is already low, the rate of reaching adequate food is expected to be 8%. In the least developed economies with limited food availability, it is expected to reach 89 kcal, only 3.77%, on a daily basis. This data is far behind the global average.

FAO’s research shows that, on a global scale, 14% of agricultural products and food spoils before it reaches the table and that 17% of the food that reaches the consumer is wasted due to misuse, wrong or inadequate storage methods. Trends in global agricultural products and food demand indicate that, as an agricultural country, if Turkey can evaluate and plan well for the next 10 years, it could mean an export income of $50 billion (TL 433.46 billion) for the country’s economy.

By Professor Dr. Kerem Alkin,


About İsmail Uğural

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