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Researchers at the Boğaziçi University showed that fresh and dried apricot production in Malatya, the leader province both in Turkey and the world, is under threaten associated with the effects of climate change due to late-spring frosts.
Continuing their research at Boğaziçi University Climate Change and Policies Application and Research Center, Tufan Turp and Dr. Nazan An are conducting a research project aiming to predict the change in productivity for apricot fruit, taking into account the effects of possible climate change in the future. Researcher Tufan Turp stated that they were working on various scenarios for the 2021-2050 period to analyze the effects of changes in climatic parameters on apricot productivity and gave the following information about the project:
“The relationship between climate variables and apricot yield is very strong and apricot yield is highly affected by climatic conditions. The expectation that apricot production will be affected significantly in the future due to climate change, especially from late spring frosts and winter temperature increases, makes the studies on apricot important. Therefore, the aim of this study is to analyze the effects of changes in climatic parameters on apricot productivity.”
The yield in apricot may fall to 40 percent…
Indicating that apricots can generally be grown in many parts of the world depending on various climatic conditions, Tufan Turp noted, “Despite this, world production of fresh apricots is low. The best quality apricot is grown in Malatya due to the suitable soil and climate conditions and this apricot is exported to the world. Therefore, the yield change in Malatya is very important in terms of economic value.”
Pointing out that the modeling results predicting the change in apricot yield in the 2021-2050 period revealed that climate change will have a negative impact on apricot yield in Malatya, Turp added:
“Provided that the measurement and reporting deficiencies in the official data sources of the results and the uncertainties of the climate and product models used are taken into account, it is predicted that the apricot yield in the region will decrease by up to 40 percent in the near and mid future. In this context, it is clear that the expected increase in temperature values with climate change, even according to the optimistic scenario, poses a threat to apricot production.”
